European Central Bank to Make Difficult Decision on Crisis Program

European Central Bank to Make Difficult Decision on Crisis Program

Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) are preparing for a difficult discussion at the upcoming monetary policy meeting in June. The subject is whether they should begin to reduce their emergency bond-buying program.

Last week, the Governing Council’s session concluded with no changes to the existing policy. However, according to officials, the next meeting, scheduled for June 10th, is speculated to be much more hostile. This is down to conflicting opinions on how to move forward with the crisis program that is currently in place.

Conflicting Opinions

The ECB’s Governing Council includes six members from the Executive Board and the governors of the national central banks of the 19 eurozone countries. Among them there are those prepared to argue that the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) should be scaled back in the third quarter. These members believe that the economy is on a solid recovery path that will peak in the second half of the year. Doing so would keep the total size of bond-buying within the planned €1.85 trillion ($2.2 trillion) envelope that was planned for until March 2022.

However, other members feel differently. Believing a more cautious approach is the way to go. One that does not commit the ECB to stick to the limit that is in place. This gives the European Central Bank more flexibility in case it needs to respond to further economic weakness.

Last Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “preserving favourable financing conditions over the pandemic period remains essential to reduce uncertainty and bolster confidence.” She then pointed out that “incoming economic data, surveys and high-frequency indicators suggest that economic activity may have contracted again in the first quarter of this year, but point to a resumption of growth in the second quarter.”

Despite this, Lagarde added that it would be “premature” to make any new decisions on the policy at present and that the topic hasn’t been formally discussed.

Spending So Far

Introduced in March 2020, the PEPP was put in place to address the rising bond yields in the eurozone. The Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP to occur at a higher rate during the first quarter of 2021. Many countries have returned to lockdowns after a third wave of infections over the Easter period.

Data gathered from Deutsche Bank highlighted the ECB purchased €74 billion in bonds in March. This is up from €53 billion and €60 billion in the first two months of 2021. As well as this, Italian bonds have reversed gains, pushing 10-year yields up one basis point to a day-high of 0.77%.

The European Central Bank has spent almost €1 trillion so far under the PEPP. In March, it decided to increase the pace of buying. This was to protect the region from higher global borrowing costs, which is occurring due to the faster U.S. recovery. Since then, net purchases have averaged €17 billion a week. If this pace is maintained, policymakers will be faced with a tough choice later in the year. They can limit purchases heavily to keep the programs spending within the €1.85 trillion limit, risking market volatility, or they can prolong and expand the program.

To Sum Up

Some countries are recovering better than others. For example, nations that rely on the resilience of the manufacturing industry, like Germany and France, can absorb more of the financial damage caused by the pandemic than those dependent on tourism and services.

A crucial decision will be made in the June meeting. Hope remains that the economy will regain its strength in the second half of 2021 and that inflation will remain below 2%. However, the ECB confirmed in a statement that if that does not happen, “the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.”

Legal disclaimer: The material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments. UR Trade Fix Ltd accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences resulting in it. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The analysis does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Past performance does not constitute a reliable indicator of future results and future forecasts do not constitute a reliable indicator of future performance.

It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research, and as such it is considered to be marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of the publication of our research, we do not seek to take advantage of it before we provide it to our clients. We aim to establish, maintain and operate effective organizational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. We operate a policy of independence, which requires our employees to act in our clients’ best interests when providing our services.