24-hour view: “We expected USD to strengthen last Friday but we were of the view that ‘odds for a sustained advance above 104.75 are not high’. We highlighted that ‘105.00 is unlikely to come into the picture’. Our view was not wrong as USD rose to 104.94 before easing off to close at 104.68 (+0.45%). Overbought conditions suggest that further USD strength is unlikely. For today, USD is more likely to consolidate and trade between 104.40 and 105.00.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Thursday (28 Jan, spot at 104.25), we highlighted that ‘risk for USD has shifted to the upside’ and we were of the view that ‘the solid resistance at 104.75 may not yield so easily’. However, USD popped to a high of 104.94 on Friday before easing off to close on a firm note at 104.68. Upward momentum has improved and USD is likely to strengthen further. That said, overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. Looking ahead, a clear break of 105.00 would shift the focus to 105.40. Overall, the current positive outlook for USD is deemed intact as long as USD does not move below 104.00 (‘strong support’ level previously at 103.75).”
GBP/USD settles above 1.3710 and is trying to get above the next resistance level at 1.3745
GBP/USD is currently testing the nearest resistance level which is located at 1.3745. This resistance level has already been tested many times and proved its strength.
If GBP/USD manages to settle above this level, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the next resistance at 1.3785. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
In case GBP/USD settles above the resistance at 1.3785, it will get to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3800. It should be noted that GBP/USD has not visited this territory for several years, and it remains to be seen whether previous levels will be relevant for today’s trading.
On the support side, the nearest support level for GBP/USD is located at 1.3710. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will move towards the next support near the 20 EMA at 1.3665. A successful test of the support at the 20 EMA will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3625.
Near-term Price Outlook
The inability of bulls to push EUR/USD past recent tops in the vicinity of 1.2200 has sparked the ongoing consolidation with the lower bound of the range in the mid-1.2000s, or YTD lows. This idea is reinforced by the RSI navigating the proximity of the 50 level. A sustainable move beyond this area should pave the way for a test of the so far yearly peaks around 1.2350 (January 6). On the opposite side, the 2021 lows near 1.2050 (January 18) are expected to hold bouts of selling pressure. Further south of this level carries the potential to trigger a deeper pullback to, initially, the Fibo retracement (of the November-January rally) at 1.1976.
Legal disclaimer: The material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments. UR Trade Fix Ltd accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences resulting in it. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The analysis does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Past performance does not constitute a reliable indicator of future results and future forecasts do not constitute a reliable indicator of future performance.
It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research, and as such it is considered to be marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of the publication of our research, we do not seek to take advantage of it before we provide it to our clients. We aim to establish, maintain and operate effective organizational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. We operate a policy of independence, which requires our employees to act in our clients’ best interests when providing our services