EUR/USD extends its overnight range play below mid-1.1800 into the European session. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, is focused on the four-month uptrend at 1.1732 as a lost of this level will introduce scope for a slide towards the 55-day ma at 1.1620.
“EUR/USD sold off last week and starts this week with the focus on the four-month uptrend at 1.1732. Intraday Elliott wave counts are negative and there is a risk that the up trend will give way. Failure here will target the 55-day ma at 1.1620 and potentially the March high at 1.1495.”
“The market has recently failed at 1.2014 and intraday rallies are indicated to hold below 1.1875.”
Only a sustained break above the latter will save the day for the bulls, opening doors for a test of the next strong cap at $1950, where the previous day high, pivot point one-day R1 and SMA5 one-day coincide.
To the downside, immediate support is aligned at $1929, the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Bollinger Band 15-minutes Lower.
The next powerful cushion awaits at $1916, which could challenge the bears’ commitment. That level is the intersection of the previous day low and pivot point one-day S1.
Meanwhile, acceptance below $1913, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month, will expose the $1900 mark.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias might have already shifted back in favour of bearish traders. A subsequent slide below Friday’s swing low, around the 1.3165 region, will reaffirm the negative bias and turn the pair vulnerable to break below the 1.3100 round-figure mark. The momentum could further get extended towards 1.3050-40 strong horizontal support.
On the flip side, the 1.3265-75 horizontal zone again becomes immediate strong resistance and is followed by the 1.3300 mark. Only a sustained move beyond the mentioned barriers will negate the bearish outlook and lift the pair back towards the 1.3400 mark. Some follow-through buying should assist bulls to make a fresh attempt to reclaim the key 1.3500 psychological
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